Buy Signal: $MRNA
Moderna (MRNA) Oversold Bounce Play
Background: Moderna fell nearly 40% this month. Why?
Moderna earnings: Missed forecast by 20% ; Pfizer taking vaccine market share.
France advises people <30 to not take the vaccine.
Company cited higher heart risks than PFE’s vaccine.
Cited bottleneck manufacturing issues
In mid-October, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) chose to postpone its decision on whether or not to authorize Moderna's two-dose vaccine for use in children 12 to 17 years old in order to review reports of a rare heart inflammation condition called myocarditis, as reported by The Wall Street Journal. Currently, Pfizer is the only vaccine authorized for use in those under the age of 18.
Thesis: This 40% sell-off is an over-reaction & the risks are much more to the upside than the downside.
Stock dropped 40% over the last month but analysts estimates do not equate to the 40% drop in the stock. Third quarter analyst EPS came out to be 7.70 missing 9.05 estimate. Fourth quarter average EPS estimate is 8.33. 2021 FY EPS brought down only by a couple dollars to 26.41. I don’t think these estimates equate to the price change. 40% drawdown in three days and FY 2021 EPS only lowered by a couple dollars. Price move is an over-reaction
Potential Tailwinds:
Health Canada has approved a booster of Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine for people 18 years of age and older. (Nov 12)
Applied for approval from Japan's health ministry on Wednesday to use their COVID-19 vaccines for booster shots, broadcaster NHK reported on Thursday. (Nov 9)
CVS Health has announced that in addition to the previously approved Pfizer BioNTech COVID19 booster, some pharmacies and Minute Clinic locations will offer Moderna COVID19 boosters to eligible populations starting (Nov 5)
Mobility trade. Thanksgiving: Biggest travel holiday in the United States. Modern- U.S only vaccine. Thesis: Demand increase - Some* people will get the vaccine in order to visit their family. Thanksgiving gives people a timely reason to finally get the vaccine if one did not already do so.
36 congressional members wrote a letter to Biden urging him to mandate vaccination for U.S domestic flights. Yes, there is a low chance that this will actually happen but furthermore rumors of this could cause MPs to price this into the stock. Nov 11
Covid-19 cases are spiking globally.